Athens is watching with great interest the intense diplomatic activity being pursued by Turkey to resolve the deadlock over the Russian S-400 air defense system — a deadlock that is preventing Ankara from acquiring fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets and potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey’s “S-400 file” in Abu Dhabi: The push to clear the F-35 obstacle
This diplomatic momentum intensified following statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who for the first time left open the possibility of transferring the S-400 systems from Turkey to a third country. Lavrov indicated that Moscow is willing to consider any proposal, noting that “options exist,” while also setting strict conditions.
The scenario of transferring the systems to the United Arab Emirates has taken center stage during Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to Abu Dhabi. Turkish newspaper Türkiye revealed yesterday that the “S-400 file” is a key item on the agenda of the Turkish delegation’s talks.
However, the prerequisite conditions include Russia’s explicit consent, the recipient country’s friendly relations with Moscow, and guarantees that the weapons system will not subsequently be transferred to a country hostile to Russia. While Russia no longer rules out the removal of the S-400s from Turkey, it has yet to give final approval for any specific agreement.
Kostas Ifantis: “The UAE accepting the S-400s seems particularly difficult”
Professor of International Relations Kostas Ifantis points out that the prospect of the UAE accepting the S-400 systems appears extremely unlikely, given that the Emirates maintain very close defense ties with the United States, operate American military equipment, and have already placed an order for F-35s. Accepting the Russian missiles would therefore create for the UAE the exact same CAATSA sanctions problem that Turkey is currently trying to resolve.
As he told parapolitika.gr: “Because the United Arab Emirates have a very close relationship with the United States and their arsenal is essentially American — and whether or not they’ve already received them, they have ordered F-35s — I think they would face the same problem as Turkey. In other words, I cannot imagine that sanctions would not also apply to that country. Despite the fact that the UAE is not a NATO member, they operate American weapons systems. So I consider this very difficult — though nothing can ever be entirely ruled out — but I cannot see how such a thing could actually happen.”
The US, Russia, and Israel working behind the scenes
Despite Turkey’s efforts, the transfer of the S-400s to the UAE is encountering strong opposition from the Israeli government. Reports in the Turkish press indicate that Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have intervened behind the scenes, pressuring Abu Dhabi not to accept the Turkish proposal. Tel Aviv’s concern centers on the fact that removing the S-400s would smooth over US-Turkish relations and pave the way for Turkey to acquire F-35s, altering the regional balance of power.
“Turkey will exhaust every possibility to get rid of the S-400s”
According to Professor Ifantis, “Turkey will exhaust every possibility to get rid of the S-400s in order to re-enter the program. At the moment, it is making efforts — perhaps driven by the American ambassador, who was assuring everyone that Turkey would rejoin the program. It seems that Ankara had internalized the belief that it would ultimately receive the F-35s without being forced to give up the S-400s. However, I think the Turkish leadership is gradually coming to realize that this is not possible. So I believe Turkey is now in a process of searching for a solution.”
For the time being, there appears to be no breakthrough in the talks that could be officially announced. Indeed, US Ambassador Tom Barrack, speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, stated that Turkey and the United States are working through the requirements imposed by Congress on the S-400 issue, acknowledging that resolving the legal and regulatory questions will take time.
The KAAN stealth fighter factor
A number of observers, however, are questioning Turkey’s insistence on acquiring the F-35s given Ankara’s own claims that its domestically produced KAAN stealth fighter is nearly comparable to the F-35 and is set to enter service no later than 2033. The KAAN program could potentially equip Turkey with approximately 100 stealth combat aircraft.
Even so, Fidan’s visit to the United Arab Emirates confirms that Turkey remains committed to rejoining the F-35 program, with negotiations continuing on all fronts in the search for a way out of the impasse.
