The latest Marc poll before the August summer lull calls to mind a line from a Papazoglou song: “everything around changes, yet everything stays the same.” On one hand, the political correlations recorded in voting intention estimates show no significant deviations. New Democracy maintains its lead, ELAS under Tsipras holds second place by a wide margin, and PASOK sits in third, while Mrs. Karystianou’s newly formed party shows a downward trend. However, two key parameters should give serious pause — primarily the first of them — both to the government and to the broader group of so-called establishment parties. These two parameters concern, first, the dilemma of “political change vs. stability” and, second, the appeal of political parties among younger voters.
The ballot box dilemma
On the first dilemma, the desire for “political change through different parties” now holds a clear lead in the preferences of 54% of voters. A majority current in favor of change is taking shape, driven primarily by fatigue from New Democracy’s long time in government and the search for an alternative governing formula. From this perspective, it is no coincidence that both PASOK and ELAS, along with smaller political forces, consistently put the demand for political change front and center.
On the other hand, it should not be underestimated that 41% of respondents prioritize political continuity and stability — something the ruling party is banking on and will clearly leverage ahead of the next election, as it views this sentiment as its primary “reservoir” for achieving the difficult goal of an outright majority. So why does the 54% wave for political change fail to find meaningful expression? The answer continues to lie in the ongoing fragmentation of the opposition spectrum, compounded by conflicting policy approaches. That 54% does not constitute a dynamic, alternative governing proposal. It is spread across many forces, both to the right and left of the political spectrum, under different leaders with visible rivalries and contradictory policy directions.
A direct consequence of this is the inability of opposition political forces to present themselves as guarantors of stability — even in the event of a potential change of power. Opposition practices bring into sharp conflict the desire for political change and the need for post-election stability. This climate weighs heavily on the overall political atmosphere, generating a pervasive sense of uncertainty.
The Marc survey reveals yet another finding that should concern opposition parties. When asked about political change versus stability, the percentage in favor of change among those who declare no political affiliation skyrockets: 61.9% say they favor change, while only 27.1% lean toward political stability. Notably, most of those who declare no party affiliation are young people. And here things get complicated — for New Democracy as well as for the two parties that follow it in the polls. For New Democracy, among the 17–44 age group, its polling figure drops to 20.5%, while among those aged 65 and over, it soars to 45.6%. Yet ELAS also struggles: in the 17–44 age group it stands at 13.6%, reaching just 16.5% among those 65 and over. The picture is similar for PASOK — 8.2% among 17–44-year-olds, rising to 12.2% among voters aged 65 and above.
The generational divide
When it comes to the preferences of younger age groups, their support is distributed among smaller parties — and with striking results. Indicatively, Plefsi Eleftherias records a remarkable 8.4% among younger voters and virtually zero among older ones. Yet if the anti-establishment sentiment of some young people is partly fueling smaller parties, the survey also captures the inability of the “establishment” parties to connect with younger voters — or more broadly, with those who declare no political affiliation. A peculiar divide is forming between the forces that currently govern or aspire to govern the country in the coming years, and younger citizens who simply do not see in them anything that could make their vote matter. Not unrelated to this divide is the policy messaging of most parties, which is aimed primarily at older age groups, since those constitute the main “reservoir” of votes. Such an orientation, combined with the failure to politically engage younger voters, may be shortsightedly viewed as sufficient to deliver results at the next ballot box — but it falls far short of convincing large numbers of young people to turn dynamically and en masse toward any force that claims to champion political change. And if this represents the government’s Achilles’ heel, it simultaneously exposes the opposition parties’ own inability to capitalize on the discontent and disillusionment felt by younger segments of public opinion.
Originally published in the newspaper “Sto Karfi”.
