Marine Le Pen is now facing the full weight of the justice system after being found guilty of embezzlement of public funds by an appeals court, as announced moments ago by the presiding judge.
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The leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party was sentenced to three years in prison, two of which are suspended, while the remaining year is to be served under house arrest with an electronic tag. She was also handed a 45-month ban from standing for election, with 30 months of that suspended. In addition, she was ordered to pay a fine of €100,000.
Developments following Le Pen’s conviction
At 8 p.m., Le Pen is set to appear on the prime-time national news bulletin for her first interview since the verdict was handed down.
Meanwhile, the question of whether the far-right stands a better chance of winning with or without Le Pen at the helm remains very much open. Polls suggest that Jordan Bardella is slightly more popular. A survey conducted last month by French polling firm Ifop showed that the 30-year-old politician could win the first round of elections with as much as 37% of the vote — a lead of more than 15 percentage points over his nearest rival in all scenarios. By contrast, the same poll put Le Pen’s first-round figure at no more than 32%.
The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for April 18. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, the top two contenders will face off in a second round on May 2. Whatever advantage Bardella holds in terms of popularity, however, he loses on the front of experience. His young age and the fact that he has never been tested in a senior institutional role raise serious questions about whether he can sustain his momentum in the months ahead. It also remains unclear whether French voters are ready to entrust the leadership of a nuclear power — and Europe’s second-largest economy — to a 30-year-old.
For Le Pen, the stakes are deeply personal. If the appeals court upholds the ban, it will be a devastating blow to a politician who has spent more than a decade trying to detoxify the image of the party she inherited from her father. And now, at the very moment when the National Rally is closer to power than ever before, she risks being locked out of the ballot entirely.
