The rally in oil prices and natural gas continues as attacks against critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East intensify fears of international supply shortages. From early morning, international oil and natural gas prices have been moving upward, with investors pricing in not only hour-by-hour developments, but also their potential impact on global energy adequacy and smooth supply chains.
Energy prices: The gap between US crude and European Brent reaches decade highs
In Europe, Brent crude prices surpassed the $118 per barrel barrier before retreating to $112-114. This rise reaches up to 9.5% on a daily basis, while monthly gains exceed 59%. Meanwhile, the gap between US crude and European Brent has reached the highest levels of the past decade. At the same time, European natural gas is jumping up to 100% on a monthly basis, recording today’s surge of up to 35%, with prices hovering around 64 euros per megawatt hour, reaching earlier up to 80 euros per megawatt hour. This represents one of the largest daily changes in recent years.
These increases are expected to pass through to the domestic fuel market. According to updated price bulletins this morning, the average price of unleaded gasoline nationwide stands at 1.96 euros per liter, increased by 21 cents, while at several gas stations in the provinces, prices may exceed 2 euros per liter.
Qatar announced Wednesday that Iranian missile attacks caused damage to a key liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility. This attack came after Tehran’s warning that it would target energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, in retaliation for Israel’s bombing of a natural gas processing unit in Iran.
Such a shift would signal the transition from a limited geopolitical risk to a global supply shock, where traditional pricing models and risk assessments would no longer apply. In such an environment, fears of extensive disruptions in fuel refining and distribution could cause extreme volatility, with oil and natural gas prices rising sharply as traders discount worst-case scenarios and rush to secure supplies.
“We’re moving from a supply chain problem to a potential supply problem. There’s a big difference. Supply chain problems are solved quickly,” said Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners. “If you start changing production capacity, whether it’s LNG or oil, and suddenly you can’t move the same volumes because they don’t exist… That’s an escalation.”
Markets in the red
Stock prices at the Athens Stock Exchange are under strong pressure, falling below 2,100 points amid negative sentiment in international markets. The General Price Index at 16:50 stood at 2,076.51 points, recording a 2.50% decline.
Meanwhile, major European stock exchanges are recording losses above 2% due to rising energy prices.
Specifically, the German DAX index loses 2.75%, the British FTSE 100 slides 2.56%, and the French CAC-40 retreats 1.91%. The Spanish IBEX-35 and Italian FTSE MIB record losses of 2.37% and 2.42% respectively.
Meanwhile, precious metals are plunging: gold lost more than 6% today and silver 13%.
