Credit rating upgrades for Greece from major rating agencies in 2025 are expected to continue into the new year, as the country’s creditworthiness approaches just one step away from the A grade, where most Eurozone countries are positioned.
March brings first good news for the Greek economy
The first good news is likely to come in March, when three agencies – the American Moody’s, the Canadian DBRS, and the German Scope – will announce the first of their two 2026 assessments. The other two major agencies, the American S&P and Fitch, will deliver their first verdicts in April and May. Closest to a new upgrade is Scope, which revised its outlook on Greek creditworthiness to positive last November, at the BBB grade.
As stated in its assessment, the positive outlook means greater probability of an upgrade over the next 12-18 months, provided there is further sustainable and significant reduction in public debt supported by continued primary surpluses and prudent fiscal management.
Alternatively or cumulatively, the upgrade, Scope noted, “could result from improved medium-term economic growth prospects and stronger resilience to external shocks – reflected in steady reform implementation, sustained improvement in the current account balance, higher investment – or from further strengthening of the banking sector and financial stability.”
These conditions appear to be secured. According to the state budget for 2026, public debt is projected to decline further this year to 138.2% of GDP from 145.9% in 2026, while according to the government’s multi-annual fiscal framework, it will fall below 120% by 2029. The debt reduction will be supported by a primary surplus of around 2.8% of GDP in 2026, with similarly high surpluses projected for subsequent years. The economy’s growth rate is forecast at 2.4% this year, while strengthening of the banking system continues at a rapid pace, as evidenced by the reduction of non-performing loans close to Eurozone average levels and strong profitability and capital position of banks.
Therefore, an upgrade from Scope to the BBB+ grade, just one step below the A grade, is possible this year – either in March or September when the German agency announces its second assessment.
Scope serves as “trailblazer” for Greece’s upgrades
It’s noteworthy that Scope functions as a “trailblazer” for Greece’s upgrades in recent years. The German agency was the first to give Greece investment grade status in September 2023 and was also the first to upgrade it within the investment grade (BBB) in 2024.
At the BBB grade, with stable outlook, S&P, Fitch, and DBRS now rate the Greek economy. Moody’s is the only one among the five major agencies that rates it one step lower (BBB- with stable outlook). In a recent report on global prospects for 2026, the American agency mentioned Greece as one of the few countries for which it expects further reduction in public debt, which could be interpreted as a signal for a new creditworthiness upgrade in March or with its second assessment in September.
Further improvement in creditworthiness would solidify the assessment that exists among international investors regarding strong fiscal performance and the generally positive trajectory of the Greek economy. This assessment is reflected in the reduction of Greek government bond spreads. The yield on the 10-year Greek government bond was formed at 3.37% on Thursday compared to 3.51% for Italy and 3.53% for France. Compared to 12 months ago, the yield on Greek 10-year bonds increased by only 7 basis points (0.07 percentage points), while corresponding German bonds increased by 32 basis points.
Credit rating upgrades will seal this image and help contain borrowing costs during a period when the international trend is slightly upward. Analysts who participated in a Reuters survey predicted that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury will rise to 4.25% at the end of 2026 from about 4.17% today, and the corresponding German benchmark to 2.97% from 2.89%.
